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Do we really know that the WTO is increasing trade? American Economic Review, 94(1), 98-114. All authors contributed the same way to the document. We thank the NFS Trade Regulation (www.nccr-trade.org) for its financial support and our scientific collaborators for their assistance in collecting the data in this document. Special thanks go to Karolina Milewicz for her support of the larger project. Todd Allee, Richard Baldwin, Tim Büthe, Jappe Eckhardt, Jeff Kucik, Marcelo Olarreaga, Ron Rogowski, Michael Zürn and participants in the ECPR joint sessions of the University of Antwerp made useful comments on earlier versions of this document. . . .